Global air cargo demand rose 4 percent year over year in April, led by a 10.5 percent surge from Asia-Pacific carriers, even as capacity tightened up amid disruptions from the war in Iran. The month bounced back from March numbers, when the conflict sunk total annual demand by 4.8 percent.
According to a market analysis from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), supply chain adjustments and elevated shipping uncertainty kept time-sensitive freight demand steady despite the sequential softening of global trade indicators.
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The association said worldwide trade volumes contracted a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent month-over-month, and an unadjusted 2.1 percent, after four consecutive months of growth.
Carriers from the Asia-Pacific region, which has a 35.8 percent share of all industry demand served as the principal engine of global cargo growth. These carriers accounted for more than half of incremental industry volumes by expanding cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) by 800 million year over year.
Europe and North America also contributed positively with demand growth of 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively, benefiting from improving international flows and firm corridor activity with Asia.
Middle Eastern carriers faced severe operational strain amid the disruptions across airspace throughout the region that weakened regional connectivity, as certain countries still having full or partial closures at the time.
The carriers saw an 18.2 percent decrease in air cargo demand from the year prior, amounting to a contraction of roughly 500 million CTKs.
“Severe disruption at major Gulf hubs due to the war in the Middle East continued to reshape trade routes and constrain capacity on key corridors,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, in a statement. “With dedicated freighters carrying much of the growth, air cargo is once again keeping supply chains moving amid trade disruptions. The coming months will test how well the sector can absorb continued geopolitical uncertainty and elevated operating costs.”
Momentum for cargo demand concentrated primarily in Asia-related corridors, where trade flows adjusted toward alternative routing structures amid the Middle Eastern disruption.
The Europe-Asia trade lane continued to hold strong throughout April with 16.2 percent growth in CTKs, the highest among the eight corridors covered by IATA. April extended a prolonged multi-year expansion cycle, in which demand has grown for 38 consecutive months.
Within Asia also strengthened materially, recording its first double-digit CTK increase in several months at 13 percent as regional supply chains stayed highly active. Intra-Asia trade lanes have grown at the second-longest running pace worldwide at 30 months.
Trans-Pacific demand improved further, with Asia-North America volumes extending a sixth consecutive month of expansion at 8.3 percent. The trans-Pacific and Europe-Asia corridors have largely carried global demand growth, combining for a nearly 45 percent share of the total air cargo industry.
By contrast, corridors directly exposed to Middle East faced sustained weakness, though the downturn lost considerable momentum. The routes involving Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Asia traffic contracted by 25.9 percent and 22.4 percent, respectively, in a significant step back from March, when plunges exceeded 50 percent.
At the time, airlines like Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad Airways had to stabilize operations around restricted airspace.
Dedicated freighters were the primary driver of industry growth as airlines relied on controlled cargo capacity amid the heightened operational uncertainty.
Freighter volumes expanded by 7 percent year-on-year, marking a return to growth after previous weakness.
The lane with the strongest demand growth, Europe-Asia, also generated the largest incremental freighter contribution, adding more than 409 million CTKs as industrial trade flows between both regions remained resilient. Asia-North America also accelerated, supported by improving trans-Pacific shipment volumes and strong network utilization, the association said.
The disruptions led to the modest 0.4 percent decline in overall industrywide capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs).
Asia-Pacific airlines had the largest increase in capacity at 5.3 percent, in line with their double-digit rise in demand. The carriers added nearly 900 million ACTKs of volume in April.
Carriers out of Europe and North America also posted moderate gains of 3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.
Middle Eastern and African carriers are responsible for the global capacity decline, with the former slashing roughly 1.5 billion ACTKs as operational disruptions stifled flight activity. Total capacity for Middle Eastern airlines declined 22.9 percent from the year prior, while capacity based out of Africa dipped 9.4 percent.
